As Rick Santorum became a front runner in the polls over the past month, the media swarmed to cover him. At the end of January, Santorum was considered a fringe candidate who was too conservative for the general public. He received 17 percent of the vote in the South Carolina primary on January 21. On January 31, he received only 13.3 percent of the vote in the Florida primary.
So what happened? He started to turn it around. He won the Missouri, Colorado and Minnesota caucuses on Feb. 7. He skyrocketed overnight from being mentioned 963 times in the media on Feb. 7th, to being talked about by 3,388 news articles the following day, pulling him up to Romney levels in news mentions and propelling him in the polls, according to OhMyGov analytics.
Twitter buzz about him also increased rapidly, by 56.5 percent, according to OhMyGov data. The growth percentages kept his name in the media about as frequently as Mitt Romney’s. Meanwhile, the other two leading Republican candidates, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich, have fallen to a second-tier status in overall media coverage.
Paul’s growth in news mentions fell by 11.5% since January 25th, and Gingrich’s grew by a paltry 13.4 percent while they continued to slide in the polls.
The media giveth and the media taketh away. Thus far for Santorum, the media has been a boon.
Santorum’s media mentions increased from under 500 day at the end of January to a high of around 3,000 just after the Republican Arizona debate on Feb. 22. His 37,985 mentions pale in comparison to Romney’s 63,276 over the past month, but it shows he's clearly got the momentum, despite being outspent by Romney by a near 6 to 1 ratio.
Santorum’s rise in the media and polls has also equated to a rise in social media over the same period. While Romney’s mentions on Twitter fell by 26.5 percent, Santorum’s grew by 56.5 percent.
Despite ending January as the least mentioned candidate, Santorum entered the Arizona debate on Feb. 22 with almost 5,000 more mentions per day than Romney.
Then, after what critics called a poor debate performance, Santorum fell past both Romney and Gingrich in Twitter mentions in the days after the debate. The fall may be a result of the controversial stance he has taken on social issues, primarily against gays and contraception, that has been brought to the spotlight as he became a front runner for the nomination.
Today, Santorum has a slight lead in national polls. Real Clear Politics
has Santorum 3 points over Romney at 33 percent to 30 percent. But Santorum’s rise has emulated the rise of Herman Cain and then Newt Gingrich. Santorum came from polling below 10 percent to front-runner status in less than a month and the media followed right along with him. Republican voters have strung along different candidates
against Mitt Romney which the media covers as the flavor-of-the-week candidate
as they rise in the polls. Then, as each potential candidate suffers a
primary loss, they begin to fade away. Only Romney has been able to
hold the media’s attention throughout the campaign.
Romney’s line in the polls is relatively stagnant, whereas his competitors have tended to spike and then fade, as illustrated in the first chart below. Romney’s media attention have also consistently led other candidates as they’ve made a run for front runner status. This doesn't mean he'll necessarily pull out a series of wins over the coming weeks, but it does show his consistency as the front-runner, even if he's not the front-runner of the week. Perhaps in the GOP presidential contest, it's better to be the tortoise than the hare.
