Although February has so far been a victorious month for former
Senator Rick Santorum, analysis of leading social media indicators shows he is locked in a very tight race with former Governor Mitt Romney
this week.
Even though Santorum experienced a significant jump in social media followers after his
February 7 wins in Minnesota, Missouri, and Colorado, the momentum of his daily
Facebook fan growth faded quickly and further eroded after his
less-than-stellar debate performance on February 22.
In a recent study, the rate of daily Facebook
fan growth has been proven to correlate with traditional polling data, potentially signaling that the daily growth on Facebook is a predictive indicator of election outcomes. But this week, even with Facebook data, the race is too close to call.
Source: OhMyGov Media Monitoring
Debate performances helped propel former Speaker
of the House Newt Gingrich to victory in South Carolina earlier this season, but the month off between forums and a
decision by the candidate to look ahead to Super Tuesday likely contributed to
Gingrich’s virtually flat social media momentum this month. Instead of
rebooting Gingrich’s campaign or clarifying which candidate is the frontrunner,
the only February debate appears to instead have helped President Barack Obama’s
reelection efforts, according to OhMyGov's media analytics.
Source: OhMyGov Media Monitoring
Among
the Republican candidates, public support on Facebook in the days immediately following the
debate was greatest for Romney and Paul, while Santorum’s numbers declined and
Gingrich’s remained flat.
Source: OhMyGov Media Monitoring
Social media appears to show
what the political pundits have been saying; no one in the Republican Party is
truly energizing the voters. A recent analysis of issues for Michigan voters -- as reflected in social media
-- suggests that the recent shift in conversation from economic issues to social
issues is further alienating would-be Republican voters.
As Santorum continues to
define himself as the candidate most closely aligned with these social issues,
his standing on social media will erode and translate to fewer votes in the
ballot boxes. With Gingrich not on the ballot in Michigan and Representative
Ron Paul not considered to be a “serious” candidate, that opens the door in
Michigan for Romney to claim the win. But don't count Santorum out just yet before the campaign busses roll on to the March 3 caucus in Washington
and March 6 Super Tuesday states of Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts,
North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia.
