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An introduction to how political pros read polls

It's not just the numbers that matter

By Tara Raeber Aug 13 2010, 11:03 AM


Credit: Pollster.com

In politics, there is a need (sometimes an obsession) for numbers. Polling is used to gauge public opinion on issues, messaging, candidates, party preference, and more.

But political polls mean different things to different people. Campaigns and political strategists look at polls carefully, critically, and sometimes cynically. In general, the press and the public more often take a straightforward look and form their opinions based on the face value of political polls.

So here are a few insights on political polling that reveal what a campaign might see that you might not:

 

1. What's the point?  Websites conduct online surveys, news shows ask viewers to vote, and political organizations and events conduct straw polls. Those are all informal, nonscientific publicity polls. But that's the point. Informal polls give us those interesting, immediate, newsworthy, and sometimes shocking results that we like and share with others.

Political strategists on the other hand are likely to disregard those types of polls altogether. Informal publicity polls like that are not based on a random sample and therefore give no real indication of the larger population's opinions. Instead, campaigns want results that get to the point. To make sure it is a reliable and scientific poll, political strategists want to know more - the number polled and response rate, who participated and how it was conducted (via phone or other method), the questions and how they were worded, and who conducted and paid for it (and any conflict of interest).

 

2. Timing is everything.  In a campaign year, political polls are especially prevalent. Public perception could be influenced by early poll results, which could sway undecided voters. But overall the public often just does not pay close attention to political polls until closer to Election Day.

Political strategists do pay close attention to the timing of polls. They know that when it comes to projecting who is ahead, early polling is not as indicative as polling closer to the election. Some pollsters don't really trust a poll unless it is conducted within a few weeks of Election Day. 

 

3. Margin of error.  Most of us didn't like statistics in college and still try to avoid it. So when it comes to a poll's margin of error, we tend to focus more on the polls results and not on the fine print. Public perception is often based on interpreting (or misinterpreting) what a poll means without factoring in the margin of error.

Political strategists on the other hand will seriously scrutinize a margin of error. They know that a poll is only an estimate of the larger population and the margin of error is an indication of the poll's legitimacy and accuracy. It is one of the most telling things about a political poll. The margin of error might show that a certain poll is unreliable, subject to sampling error, too close to call, or is being misinterpreted.

 

4. Law of averages.  In politics, taking the average of results from multiple polls can sometimes produce better, more reliable information on public opinion. To the public however, we might not see any difference in a poll average - same issue, same candidate, just another number.

But to political strategists, the poll average holds much more weight and importance than a single poll. It can help eliminate bias or polling errors. While one or two polls might be unreliable or not indicative of the larger population, an average of several polls on the same subject can give political strategists a much more accurate picture.

 

5. At the source.  The name of the polling firm, campaign, or other source that conducts and/or pays for the poll often is reported with the poll results. But the general public might not recognize the source or know whether it is trustworthy or biased. Public perception will not always take that source information into account when evaluating the poll results.

Political strategists on the other hand will look closely at the source of the poll. They want to know whether the source is trustworthy or not, whether it is biased or not. Political strategists will weigh the reputation of a reliable polling firm or the bias of a political source when they evaluate the poll results.

 

So the next time you see a political poll, look a little closer, dig a little deeper. There might be more than meets the eye.

 

Tara Raeber is a communications consultant and political publicist. She is a veteran of public relations giant Fleishman-Hillard International Communications and the 2008 presidential campaign. Tara is chief strategist and partner at Republicist, a political communications firm in Washington, DC. 

 

Read More: Hot Issues, Polls, Gov 2.0, Voting And Elections, Election 2010

 
 
 
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COMMENT

Fed
August 18, 2010 9:13 AM

You know what survey is utterly unreliable in government? The Best Places to Work rankings — the rating of employee satisfaction in the federal government — produced by the Partnership for Public Service and American University's Institute for the Study of Public Policy Implementation. Why? Because their methods are manipulated. Management in organizations that have been scoring as top ten have seen that result as convenient to "sell" themselves as a good place to be. (Don't you see that's why they have stayed in teh top ten? Duh! )But guess what? Management provides the list of e-mails that the company doing the survey uses, meaning that they SELECT the employees who will respond to the survey. Convenient, ah? Therefore, the employees selected will be the ones management knows will respond with positive answers getting the scores higher. And it gets better, the same employees keep receiving the e-mail to answer the survey year, after year, after year (until they leave that organization). How do I know? I answered the survey for many years in the same agency. At the beginning teh agency was okay but, managers changed the way they behave so, after I started getting mistreated (denied training, passed over for promotions, etc.), I started responding the survey with the truth of the negative things that management was doing (or not doing) properly: call it reality check if you will. I went to work to one of the so-called "top ten" agencies (proudly shown in the vacancy announcement) but that was not the way it was. GSA is a "dump that looks and smells good, but is still a dump anyway." Management keeps a self-promotion campaign ongoing that is just that: self-promotion, with no bassis on reality. Repeating a lie will never makes it the truth, but they really think the self-promotion-hypnotizing-slogans will produce the perception that they are better than any other agency. They are NOT. GSA management are spending taxpayer's money (and working time that should be devoted to do their job) in this self-promotion campaign attempting to create the perception of something bad to be good. Don't believe the results of that ranking list: it's pure fantasy.

 

          


 

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