
Credit: Pollster.com
In politics, there is a need (sometimes an obsession) for
numbers. Polling is used to gauge public opinion on issues, messaging,
candidates, party preference, and more.
But political polls mean different things to different
people. Campaigns and political strategists look at polls carefully,
critically, and sometimes cynically. In general, the press and the public more
often take a straightforward look and form their opinions based on the face
value of political polls.
So here are a few insights on political polling that reveal
what a campaign might see that you might not:
1. What's the point? Websites conduct online surveys, news shows ask viewers
to vote, and political organizations and events conduct straw polls. Those are
all informal, nonscientific publicity polls. But that's the point. Informal
polls give us those interesting, immediate, newsworthy, and sometimes shocking
results that we like and share with others.
Political strategists on the other hand are likely to disregard those types of
polls altogether. Informal publicity polls like that are not based on a random
sample and therefore give no real indication of the larger population's
opinions. Instead, campaigns want results that get to the point. To make sure
it is a reliable and scientific poll, political strategists want to know more -
the number polled and response rate, who participated and how it was conducted
(via phone or other method), the questions and how they were worded, and who
conducted and paid for it (and any conflict of interest).
2. Timing is everything. In a campaign year, political polls are especially
prevalent. Public perception could be influenced by early poll results, which
could sway undecided voters. But overall the public often just does not pay
close attention to political polls until closer to Election Day.
Political strategists do pay close attention to the timing of polls. They know
that when it comes to projecting who is ahead, early polling is not as
indicative as polling closer to the election. Some pollsters don't really trust
a poll unless it is conducted within a few weeks of Election Day.
3. Margin of error. Most of us didn't like statistics in college and
still try to avoid it. So when it comes to a poll's margin of error, we tend to
focus more on the polls results and not on the fine print. Public perception is
often based on interpreting (or misinterpreting) what a poll means without
factoring in the margin of error.
Political strategists on the other hand will seriously scrutinize a margin of
error. They know that a poll is only an estimate of the larger population and
the margin of error is an indication of the poll's legitimacy and accuracy. It
is one of the most telling things about a political poll. The margin of error
might show that a certain poll is unreliable, subject to sampling error, too
close to call, or is being misinterpreted.
4. Law of averages. In politics, taking the average of results from
multiple polls can sometimes produce better, more reliable information on
public opinion. To the public however, we might not see any difference in a
poll average - same issue, same candidate, just another number.
But to political strategists, the poll average holds much more weight and
importance than a single poll. It can help eliminate bias or polling errors.
While one or two polls might be unreliable or not indicative of the larger
population, an average of several polls on the same subject can give political
strategists a much more accurate picture.
5. At the source. The name of the polling firm, campaign, or other
source that conducts and/or pays for the poll often is reported with the poll
results. But the general public might not recognize the source or know whether
it is trustworthy or biased. Public perception will not always take that source
information into account when evaluating the poll results.
Political strategists on the other hand will look closely at the source of the
poll. They want to know whether the source is trustworthy or not, whether it is
biased or not. Political strategists will weigh the reputation of a reliable
polling firm or the bias of a political source when they evaluate the poll
results.
So the next time you see a political poll, look a little
closer, dig a little deeper. There might be more than meets the eye.
Tara Raeber is a
communications
consultant and political publicist. She is a veteran of public relations
giant Fleishman-Hillard International Communications and the 2008
presidential
campaign. Tara is chief strategist and partner at Republicist, a
political
communications firm in Washington, DC.