
California's Jerry Brown: At it again
In the past few weeks,
we've followed the initial rummmblings of the 2010 House of Representatives and Senate races on
Twitter. Naturally, we thought we'd poke into the upcoming gubernatorial elections as
well, if for no other reason than to use the word "gubernatorial."
Nearly every single candidate in the 11 hottest races for Governor is active on Twitter, a much better showing than the Congressional candidates, a surprising number of whom were nowhere to be seen in social media.
One major variable is the size of each gubernatorial
tweeter's flock --- some candidates are Twitter superstars, others ... well, let's just say I have a bigger following and I'm not running for office in any way. The disparity in followers could imply anything from actual popularity to Internet
savvy to the engagement of followers and constituents. In any case, it will make for some fun watching and political handicapping between now and November.
Here's an early look at how the hottest races for Governor are shaping up on Twitter:
California
Goodbye, Governator. Although CQ rates the state as a solid "leans Democratic", the nominally Republican 6-year administration
under Gov. Arnold Schwarzeneggar has proven the state's politics to be nothing if unconventional. RealClearPolitics is currently predicting a +1.8
margin for former eBay CEO Meg Whitman. Although marijuana legalization is something all (except the princeliest of candidates) can
agree to shun, all Californian gubernatorial candidates have embraced Twitter
(mayhaps to offset their astronomical
campaign costs?).
Candidate, Party, Twitter Followers
Jerry Brown (D) 1,136,304
Meg Whitman (R) 230,659
Steve
Poizner (R) 215,616
and Prince Frederic von Anhalt (I) 34
Colorado
Considering it is both dubbed a "toss-up" on CQ Politics and
being tracked under RealClearPolitics' thumb, Colorado's is a gubernatorial
race to watch this year. With Governor Ritter retiring, Denver Mayor John
Hickenlooper will tee off with former Congressman Scott McInnis. Mayor
Hickenlooper is relatively new to Twitter, with his first tweet having been on
March 6th. Despite his popularity as a Mayor, it seems that Twitter was a tool
too obviously useful to pass on.
Candidate, Party, Twitter Followers
Scott McInnis (R) 2,424
John Hickenlooper (D) 201
Florida
Governor Charlie Crist is passing on the opportunity to run for
re-election and opting to run for Mel Martinez's vacated Senate seat. The
gubernatorial race in Florida has been covered on RealClearPolitics and was dubbed
as another "toss-up" political state by CQ Politics.
Candidate, Party, Twitter Followers
Bill
McCollum (R)
3,170
Alex Sink (D) 2,887
Paula Dockery (R) 1,373
Darrin McGillis (D)
977
Farid Khavari (D) 844
Michael E. Arth (D) 759
Hawaii
With Republican Governor Linda Lingle heading out due to term
restrictions, there's an open bid for the gubernatorial mansion and it's
looking like it might
go to a Democrat. Despite complaints
of the candidates' inability to optimize their websites for
search engines, all candidates boast comparatively sizable Twitter flocks,
especially Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann.
Candidate, Party, Twitter Followers
Mufi Hannemann (D) 636,767
Neil Abercrombie (D) 5,917
Duke Aiona (R) 2,542
Iowa
With current Governor Chet Culver and former Governor Terry Branstad,
Iowa's 2010 Gubernatorial race will be a tough one, which is even more reason
to tweet (especially for Libertarian Candidate Dr. Eric Cooper).
Candidate, Party, Twitter Followers
Bob Vander Plaats (R) 10,209
Chet Culver (D) 1,406
Terry Branstad (R) 724
Rod Roberts (R) 330
Eric Cooper (I) 5
Massachusetts
In light of recent events, CQ Politics has changed Massachusetts'
gubernatorial race status from "leans Democratic" to
"toss-up". Although it may sound like an arbitrary changing of the
color of the terrorist watch code (today is orange, yesterday was yellow...),
it implies a far shakier reelection campaign for Governor Patrick.
Candidate, Party, Twitter Followers
Deval Patrick (D) 10,935
Tim Cahill (I) 484
Christy
Mihos (R) 238
Grace Ross
(D) 148
Jill
Stein (I) 80
Charles Baker (R) 24
Michigan
Current Governor Jennifer Granholm cannot seek reelection to a third
term, so plenty of candidates have clamored to replace her. Considering the
deadline to be nominated for the August primaries isn't until May 11, the current
pool of candidates is quite crowded. Nonetheless, frontrunners are emerging,
and Twitter is a useful way to build brand loyalty before (and after) filing
deadlines pass.
Candidate, Party, Twitter Followers
Pete Hoekstra (R) 9,284
Mike Cox (R) 2,992
Virg Bernero (D) 1,113
Mike
Bouchard (R) 1,069
Rick Snyder (R) 981
Tim Rujan (R) 360
Tom George (R) 240
Andy Dillon (D) 175
Alma Wheeler Smith (D) 95
Nevada
Although Governor Jim Gibbons is running for reelection, a
slew of scandals inspires doubt as to whether he will even gain the Republican
nomination. CQ Politics has dubbed it a "toss-up" state and
RealClearPolitics has the Republican Primary on its radar. North Las Vegas
Mayor Mike Montandon boasts the biggest flock, while his fellow candidates
whose campaigns, including those of shamed Governor Gibbons and Senate Majority
Leader Harry Reid's son Rory, could use Twitter as a means to assert their
policies and real personalities over their personas.
Candidate, Party, Twitter Followers
Mike Montandon (R) 2,455
Brian
Sandoval (R) 528
Rory Reid (D) 462
Jim Gibbons (R)** 240
New York
Governor David Paterson, who stepped up to office in March 2008 after
Elliot Spitzer's resignation, is not campaigning for 2010. Moreover, no
Democrat has announced their candidacy yet. The most likely nominee is State
Attorney General Andrew Cuomo whose online presence only addresses his current
position and he has protected his tweets, requiring his approval as to whether
one can follow him and read his updates. Intriguing behavior, indeed, from one
who is rumored to be running for Governor of New York.
Candidate, Party, Twitter Followers
Rick
Lazio (R) 1,709
Andrew
Cuomo (D) 128
Steve Levy
(R) 127
Ohio
Although the nominations are set, including incumbent Governor Ted
Strickland, CQ Politics rates the race a "toss-up" and
RealClearPolitics cites polls that show mixed outcomes. If the election was
based on number of Twitter followers alone, we'd see a changing of the guard.
Luckily for Governor Strickland, not all voters tweet.
Candidate, Party, Twitter Followers
John Kasich (R) 10,807
Ted Strickland (D) 3,257
Wisconsin
Aside from being both a "toss-up" on CQ Politics' list and the
indication on RealClearPolitics that Scott Walker and Mark Neumann will be
tough competitors, the size of the candidate pool alone indicates that
Wisconsin's will be a "hot" gubernatorial election this year.
Other novelties of this election is candidate that Jared
Christiansen is an 18-year old manager at a McDonalds, or
that Tim John's Twitter account is named "WIBeaconOfHope". Other
potential candidates are Republicans Scott Paterick and John Schless, but their
minimal online presence raises this correspondent's eyebrow.
Candidate, Party, Twitter Followers
Scott Walker (R) 5,326
Mark
Neumann (R) 3,564
Jared Christiansen (D) 310
Tom Barrett (D) 124
Tim John (D) 25
Mark Todd (R) 22
Dominic Reinwand (D) 15
Bill Ingram (R)
Candidates in "less hot" races utilize Twitter as much as their
colleagues. South Carolina's Dwight Drake used Twitter to drop out of the race,
and Peter Corroon has two accounts, one for his campaign for Governor of Utah
and one as the current Mayor of Salt Lake City.
The fact that most
gubernatorial candidates are on Twitter is a real testament to the social
networking site's induction into the communicative fabric of our society, and
may indeed be yet another battleground for election hopefuls. Stay tuned for more updates as the races evolve.
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California,
Colorado,
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Hawaii,
Iowa,
Massachusetts,
Michigan,
Nevada,
New York,
Ohio,
Wisconsin