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GAO Reports on Projected GPS Failure

By Timothy Page Jun 16 2009, 09:41 AM

The Air Force has flacked the U.S. Government Accountability Office over a report claiming that the U.S. military's global positioning system is experiencing serious degradation.

The GPS program which provides critical position, navigation, and timing data to users worldwide has become essential to U.S. national security as well as to finding the nearest Dunkin' Donuts. An ever-expanding array of public service and commercial applications are being developed to tap into GPS data, including apps for mobile phones.

The Air Force is responsible for GPS acquisition, but has struggled in recent years to successfully build GPS satellites within cost and schedule goals.

At the moment, the GPS satellite program has overrun its original cost by about $870 million, and the launch of its first satellite has been delayed for almost three years according to the report. As a result, there is an increased likelihood that in 2010, as old satellites begin to fail, the overall GPS constellation will fall far below the number of satellites required to provide the level of GPS service that the U.S. government requires. If that happens, GPS users will have to say goodbye to that comforting, monotone voice giving them directions, and possibly have to blow the dust off the old map book.

According to a statement by Air Force Col. Dave Buckman during a May 25 online press conference, the real issue regarding the GPS is not whether it will stop working, but rather if the program will exceed the usual Air Force performance standard.

In the May 7 GAO report Global Positioning System: Significant Challenges in Sustaining and Upgrading Widely Used Capabilities, it says that there is only an 80 percent likelihood that the Air Force would be able to maintain its full 24-satellite constellation over a period between 2010 and 2014, which could result in lower GPS performance.

While there is some risk of military GPS degradation, “GPS isn’t falling out of the sky,” Buckman said. He added that the Air Force is currently going over plans to avoid risking a gap in satellite numbers by planning launches for August 2009 and early 2010 to add to the 30-plus satellites that are in orbit now.

To read the GAO report click here

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