Last week, Iraq had an election with relative safety and low voter turnout—now it is a real democracy. The provincial election, featuring more than 14,000 candidates and hundreds of parties, is considered a referendum on the performance of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. While results have not yet been finalized, the once scorned Prime Minister’s party looks set to win big at least in the Shiite areas of Iraq, solidifying his power for now.

John McCain might look at this and see the success of the troop surge he championed in the Senate and on the campaign trail. After all, the surge aimed at increasing security in Iraq so that its political leaders would have enough breathing room to make tough decisions—especially on passing a national oil law and reconciling ethno-sectarian divisions. This election gives that a chance. Even President Obama, who tried his darndest to support the surge without supporting the surge, would have a hard time explaining away the generally good news.

Harry Reid—everyone’s favorite Middle East expert—liked to talk about how the surge had failed when even Jack Murtha said that it was working. Liberal groups like to point out that the surge wasn’t the only factor in improving Iraqi security. They are perfectly correct: the Sunni Awakening, among other events, contributed just as much. In reminding the American people of these facts, though, they tend to de-emphasize the troops’ role in securing Baghdad and other areas, which did indeed give Iraqi leaders necessary “breathing room.” What’s less clear is how well they’ve used it.

So far, they have not made the tough decisions they were supposed to be making. The status of Kirkuk—and indeed of Kurdistan—remains unresolved; there is no agreement on how to share oil. Most importantly, Iraqis seem to be voting for sectarian parties—albeit for secular sectarian parties. Some Sunni Awakening parties are threatening to fight if they don’t win. This isn’t political reconciliation by any stretch of the imagination.

If—as expected—Maliki’s political capital is strengthened as a result of this election, we may finally know whether or not the surge worked. The Prime Minister can use his new clout to effect needed changes by sheer force of will, and succeed in reconciling Iraqis in a situation where even Obama’s Super Bowl party would fail. More likely Maliki will keep wringing his hands like he has done since his term began in 2006 (with the notable and admirable exception of the Battle of Basra).

As the President mulls something like a surge in Afghanistan, it is important to keep these facts in mind. The American military, when operating at its best, can dramatically improve the security situation in even the most adverse circumstances. But this does not guarantee a surge’s success: local political leaders must want to sustain those improvements. If Americans are going to bear the brunt of an Iraqi—or Taliban—insurgency, we need to ensure that the reward is worth the risk.

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