President Obama's special envoy, George J. Mitchell, arrived
in the Middle East on Tuesday, kicking off the new administration's attempt to bring a little "Yes We Can" to the troubled region.
Senator Mitchell's
fame precedes him: he helped President Clinton broker peace in Northern Ireland
ten years ago, compelling the radical Irish Republican Army to accept the "Mitchell
Principles," which included non-violence. His appointment was received well in
the Israeli press—Ha'aretz said that
Mitchell "reflects the direction and pace Obama has chosen for
the region…without which the parties will not reach a compromise." The
fact that Mitchell is an Arab American (his mother is Lebanese) also gives him credibility within the Arab world, or at least cautious
respect, which is something few envoys have received before now.
He sounds like the
man for the job. But on this initial eight-day "peace trip," there seems very little he
can actually accomplish toward President Obama's stated goals to "solidify the
cease-fire, ensure Israel's security, also ensure that Palestinians in
Gaza are able to get the basic necessities they need."
However, Mitchell—and by extension the administration—is already
doing at least one thing right. His first stop on the "Listening Tour" will not be Tel Aviv, but Cairo. Egypt is the only pro-U.S. nation
right now in direct talks with Hamas. This means that Mitchell will be hearing
the Hamas side of events before he even arrives in Israel—all without conferring
legitimacy on or even formally meeting with Hamas. Mitchell and Obama have
arranged the theater to appear both pro-Israeli and pro-Palestinian. This
is an important step to take both to achieve Obama's immediate goals and to
establish America's
role as an "honest broker" in the peace process—something President Clinton
never attained and President Bush never really tried.
What shall be trickier for Mitchell is finding a way to wade
into Israel's
upcoming election without appearing to do so. The election—two weeks from
Tuesday—will determine who will be Obama's partner on the Israeli side for the
rest of his term. At present, Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party looks set to beat
narrowly the centrist Kadima, which currently rules. A win for Likud would
likely end this current push at the peace process before it begins. Netanyahu's
campaign website flatly states, "I do not believe that the Palestinians are
prepared today to make the type of historic compromise that would end the
conflict."
It appears the most Mitchell can do in this circumstance is to give
the Kadima government as much good, local press as he can manage. A strong
condemnation of the Gaza War—as some have suggested the administration make—would
only drive Israeli voters, who overwhelmingly supported the war, into the arms
of Likud. One advantage is the fact that Kadima's candidate for prime minister, Tzipi
Livni, currently serves as foreign minister. If she and Mitchell are seen as
working well together, it may help.
What is most important of Mitchell—and Obama—to remember is
that engagement with the peace process is about more than Israel and Palestine,
or indeed about Iraq or Iran
or anywhere else. Still less is it about the worn out slogan of "getting them
to like us." It is about more than American prestige; it is about restoring
American power in the region.
In 1995, Saddam Hussein—yes, that one—released two
prisoners to then-Congressman Bill Richardson,
thanks partly to Richardson's negotiation, but
largely to the fact that he represented the President of the United States.
By 2006, the prime minister of the backwater country of Lebanon was
able to forbid the American Secretary of State from entering. He simply told
her, "You are not welcome."
We are on the path to what Fareed Zakaria called a "post-American
world." If we want to maintain leadership in the world, or even a seat at the
table, credibly engaging the peace process is absolutely vital.
Bringing the luck of the Irish?
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