What's the best way to cure America's immigration problem? Forget the bailout and let the country slip into recession - at least that's what the newest data from the Census Bureau implies.
The information from the Census, coupled with an analysis by the Pew Hispanic Center (a think tank, not a social club), suggests that the economic downturn, particularly the housing slump, coupled with greater enforcement actions on illegal immigration, has drastically reduced U.S. immigration rates.
Before anti-immigration advocates begin celebrating, they should pause to consider the short version of this message: the economy is so bad right now that things are actually looking better in Mexico and Central America.
According to the new Census report, the nation added about a half million immigrants in
2007, down from more than 1.8 million the year before.
A major contributor to the lack of economic opportunities for immigrants stems from the the collapse of the housing market and the snowball effect it caused on the rest of the economy. If you haven't noticed it, we hope you're hiring.
The housing halt reduced the number of available construction jobs - the bread and butter employment sector for Latin American immigrants. As a result, there is less of a reason to come to the U.S. for work these days.
"Migration to America’s fastest-growing areas has tapered off in the
last year, newly released Census data show. The slowdown is sharpest in
places where growth was fueled in large part by the decade’s hot
housing market—Florida, the Mountain West and ex-urban counties," said William Frey, a senior
demographer at the Brookings Institution.
In Florida, the numbers are incredibly convincing. In the past year, the state’s annual immigration numbers fell to 35,000 from an average of 230,000 per year for the previous three years.
These statistics are all derived from 2007 year-end reports, when the economy was just beginning to falter. Today, things are much worse. Layoffs and bankruptcies at the individual and corporate levels are more common. The stock market has been slammed week after week. The unemployment rate for August increased to 6.1 percent. And the federal government is jockeying for some means of keeping the economy afloat - aside from the monumental waste of a $168 billion Stimulus Plan.
The logical conclusion to be drawn is that immigration rates will sink with the economy this year, even more than they did they last year. In fact, some experts think the U.S. will witness an emigration for the first time.
"It could be the case that there are more people leaving than coming,"
says Jeff Passel, a demographer at the Pew Hispanic Center, an
independent think tank in Washington.
Increased immigration enforcement is also influencing rates, although it unclear to what extent. What is known is that more and more Latinos, legal or not, are being asked to prove their citizenship by law enforcement.
A Pew Center study showed that one-in-ten Hispanic adults surveyed report that in the past year the
police or other authorities have stopped them and asked them about
their immigration status. The situation has elevated nervousness about deportation, as 57 percent of those surveyed said they worry a lot or some
that they themselves, a family member or a close friend may be
deported - up four percent from 2007 survey data.
Latinos are also experiencing difficulties
finding employment and housing. One-in-seven (15 percent) say that they have had
trouble in the past year finding or keeping a job because they are
Latino. One-in-ten (10 percent) report the same about finding or keeping
housing.
Given the hostile environment for Latinos, the increasing number of immigration raids, and a lack of economic opportunity, common sense dictates that immigration numbers will continue to fall - at least until the benefits of coming to the U.S. outweigh the risks.
Also Interesting:
Most Read: