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Number of illegal immigrants in U.S. may be closer to 20 million

The "12 million undocumented and illegal immigrants" residing in our country have fueled the national discourse on immigration reform.  The number is repeatedly cited by immigration reform advocates like CNN's Lou Dobbs looking to incite support for their policies in curtailing the influx of foreigners.  But few politicos and pundits ever stop to ask two questions fundamental to the immigration debate: How do we calculate the number of illegal immigrants? And where did the number 12 million come from? 

The methodology for counting unauthorized immigrants relies on a lot of assumptions which call into question the accuracy of the results. Twelve million may be the most popular number cited for illegal immigrants in the U.S at present, but some estimates, like one from Bear Stearns, believe the count is actually closer to a whopping 20 million.

The different estimates stem from the varied methodologies used to arrive at a figure. Most approximations of the size and characteristics of the illegal immigrant population use the "residual method," pioneered by Jeffrey Passel of the Pew Hispanic Center. It is Dr. Passel who first came up with the estimate of 12 million illegal immigrants. The most recent estimate by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) on the unauthorized population also uses the residual method.  
 

The residual method uses a 2000 U.S. Census survey as its starting point because it yields an estimate on the number of foreign-born residents. Researchers subtract the number of immigrants who were authorized to come to the U.S. from the number of foreign-born residents counted by the Census Bureau.  This number is then adjusted using estimates of immigrant deaths and migration, and to account for Census undercounting.

Because the estimate of foreign-born individuals living in the U.S. derived by the Census relies on survey respondents to answer the Census questionnaire honestly, and because the survey was done eight years ago, neither the estimate of foreign-born individuals nor the 12 million illegal immigrant estimate can be trusted.  Are we to believe that houses full of illegal immigrants would give an accurate count of the people inside their home to Census takers?  Even more absurd is the belief they would even fill out the survey or be found by the Census in the first place.

DHS  anticipates the undercounting and adjusts their illegal immigrant estimates by a rate of 10% to account for it.  But the adjustments amount to nothing more than guesswork; they are made without any means of precision. 

‘Outmigration' also throws off estimates of illegal immigrants.  Outmigration occurs when authorized immigrants leave the country or die.  The events-which are projected from norms rather than recorded-alter the accuracy on the legal resident immigrant count used to calculate the number of illegal immigrants.  Even Dr. Passel confesses that Outmigration is "hard to measure."   

In 2005, Bear Stearns analysts determined that the surveys conducted by the Census Bureau undercounted the number of illegal immigrants by far more than 10%. Through discussions with illegal immigrants, Bear Stearns found that immigrants avoid responding to Census questionnaires and work very hard to conceal their identities.

As an alternative to the residual method, Bear Stearns used micro-economic indicators to project an alternative estimate. They examined trends in school enrollment, foreign remittances and housing permits in states with high populations of undocumented immigrants like Texas, California, and New York. 

Underpinning Bear Stearns' estimate of 20 million illegal immigrants is the identification of two patterns: 1) a trend of sharply increased demand for public services in communities that have become gateways for immigration, and 2) increases in foreign remittances (money sent back to an immigrant's native country), housing permits and border-crossings.

Given the unrecorded nature of the illegal immigration phenomenon, it's unlikely that a well-founded or rigorous method of measurement will be developed. The reality is, the math is fuzzy and the most definitive conclusion one can make is that the measurements of illegal immigrants in the U.S. are subject to extreme inaccuracies.
 


Published Apr 10 2008, 08:47 AM by Eliza Krigman |  Email |  Print



Comments

levotb said:
I appreciate Ms. Krigman's piece on "numbers" and especially the detailing of the Jan. 3, 2005 Bear Stearns Report--which immediately caused Lou Dobbs to begin quoting "20 million" every night on hos show. Now, apparently, Dobbs hs recanted to 12 million? I don't believe it, but I suppose anything is possible. Notice I wrote "the Jan. 3, 2005 Bear Stearns Report". That report (which Ms. Krigman fails to point out) used 2004 data. Let me repeat--IT USED 2004 DATA!! It is now 2008, nearly four years and millions of illegal aliens later, and they aren't going back--yet. Time Magazine had a now-famous cover story on the Invasion in 2005. That report stated that 5 million broke into the U.S. in 2004! Since that time, it has been widely accepted among Border experts that on average, between 5,000 and 10,000 illegal aliens, mostly poor Mexicans, break into the U.S. every 24 hours. The higher figure represents about 3.5 million per year. While Ms. Krigman mentions how deaths were used by the Pew in calculating the number of illegals, it is interesting because many death certificates do not show a person's nationality. Since he's dead and may have had fraudulent ID or stolen ID on him, how do we know if he's illegal? They don't check. Thus, deaths are NOT a way to estimate the number of illegals in the U.S. Ms. Krigman hasn't done her homework on the subject. Had she done so, she would have mentioned the most recent and thorough study of "numbers" of illegal aliens in the U.S.--the October 2007 CAPS Report at http://www.capsweb.org/content.php?id=242&menu_id=8 The panel who made this report consisted of illegal immigration experts. They found that the figure is between 20 and 38 million. Only a few found it to be 20 million. And that report was 6 long, invasion months ago! That is why I believe the actual number to be 40 million.
April 10, 2008 10:44 AM
Chuck Adzemaohich said:
Mexican! WHY do we NEED MORE MEXICAN’S Seriously, what makes the Mexican illegal alien so special? NOW!! They smell Amnesty in 2009! What do we owe Mexico, as our neighbor to the South, or the Mexican Nationals living in the United States of America Illegally? If we truly wanted to help the Worlds less fortunate, why do we not hold out the hand of Mercy to the Sudanese, Haitians, Moldavian, Central American’s, and those starving children of Chad these the huddled masses of these Nations are truly in need? All we hear about is the poor Mexican this, the poor Mexican that! Arizonians, have invested Millions upon Millions of dollars on its ELL program, there are at least 140,000 of these children in Arizona alone, GOD, knows how many are in California, and for what? Every other ethnic immigrant group managed to adapt to our American educational system. These children went on to become the intellect behind the Manhattan Project, NASA, and were instrumental in winning the Cold War! LOOK IT UP!!! Mexico is a Democratic Republic and one of the richest countries in the world; half of all Latin America’s Billionaires are from Mexico including top dog “Carlos Slim”! Mexico is a Republic in name only. It is an Oligarchy or Plutocracy, “Ask a Mexican” do we ever read articles in The New Times, Arizona Republic or any Major American Daily reporting how corrupt Mexico is? How about a piece on the indigenous native Mexicans demand for land REFORM in the South and the genocide associated with it? Or the R__e, Murder, Assault and Robbery of the Central Americans on Mexico’s southern border. Mexico, the legendary Mexican and in particular the “Soncho” are a JOKE in the Spanish-speaking world. A quote from the Soncho play book “I love you so many, I hardly can told you!” seriously, name two significant accomplishments Mexico has contributed to the world other then street drugs, gangs, mother’s illegally in the US with five children, raising our property tax’s for ELL instruction because Mexican children can not learn English in FIVE years, KILLING more Americans then the WAR, the list goes on and on! LOOK IT UP! Soncho, said “You stole our LAND, gringo” reply “We should have taken it all, YOU did Jack S__t with the rest and BLAME the USA for your failures ” Every person employed in Law Enforcement in Arizona from the Governor to the Cop on the beat should be ashamed to CASH his or her paycheck, due to dereliction of duty! All they seem capable of doing is to nibble at the loose ends, raid the high profile Drop House. They fear the wrath of Political Correct, and there hand off policy of the Mexican National; less we offend the Latino Community! One man puts duty before PC Joe A, our Sheriff and he is called a “Racist” for protecting us! Are those of us who want are immigration laws enforced Racist, xenophobic, or nativeists I strongly believe that being an American is not a Color, Creed, or National Origin it is a State of Mind and Sprit. The Will of the People supported by or Laws governs us. Our Executive branch both State and Federal are empowered to enforce these Laws equally by the will of the Governed. Our current immigration system in not broken its not enforced. Open you eyes and look at what has happened to OUR Nation after the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (Simpson-Mazzoli Act); Less the 1 Million turned into 3.5 Million + now it is 2008 with 20 Million+ this will become 100 Million in twenty years! For the record I Helped Document a number of the applicants in the Amnesty to END all FUTURE Amnesties! I am the Grandchild of Immigrants and it was a Debt of Honor I was Happy and Willing to Repay! The truth behind our Federal and State government’s reluctance too invoke their Prosecutorial discursion in dealing with Employers and everyone else making Big Bucks off the illegal aliens is GREED! It is all about GREED and The Arizona Republic is feasting from the same feedbag as the Chamber of Commerce, they want there cut! Our elected Representative's are pandering to BIG and small business. Our Nation’s thirst for cheap disposable labor has corporate America afflicted with a condition akin to alcoholism “One is to much and 20 million isn’t enough”. Corporate America’s dependence on Illegal aliens undermines enforcement of our existing Immigration law. All of the hype over the Latino vote or the Hispanic caucus in just smoke and mirrors. It is a about GREED? The Employer Sanction Law is in effect, time will tell if any of the Big Boys take a HIT! “God Bless the United States of America, and the Men and Women who have made her Great!”
April 10, 2008 11:02 AM
Juan Hernandez said:
The number is at least 20 million. If you look at the number of border crossing, the births to illegals at US hospitals, the huge and growing Hispanic population in almost every state (these people didn't come out of thin air), the use of Spanish in almost all business, and the 1000's I see every day that weren't here 5 years ago - and it does seem to highly suggest that there's a lot more of them. If we don't close down the border, we'll soon have 40, 60, 100 million. It's pretty bad around here already, but it could get worse.
April 10, 2008 12:43 PM
Ali said:
12 or 20? Does it really matter. We only need to know we have one heck of a lot of people violating the law and that one illegal alien is too many.
April 10, 2008 12:44 PM
Juan Hernandez said:
Sure, give them driver's licenses. This CBS article sums up we shouldn't provide any additional incentives to illegals. Be warned, if your read the article, it will totally piss you off........ www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/04/07/eveningnews/main4000401.shtml
April 10, 2008 12:48 PM
simplyillegal said:
The Illegal immigrants are exploiters of America if the come here without assimilating. Legal immigrants are welcome! Criminals from other countries are not wanted or needed by America--and we have laws on the books to protect ourselves from these lawless invaders. We are so caught up in greed, so tangled up in political correctness, that we have lost (among other things) our sense of balance and sanity. We are giving away our nation to illegal foreigners who do not want or understand our way of life. Many of us have had enough of lawlessness on a grand and unprecedented scale. End illegal immigration and deport all illegal immigrants.
April 10, 2008 1:00 PM
Peter said:
One illegal immigrant is to many because it only takes one criminal alien to pull the trigger as we have seen in so many tragic cases.
April 10, 2008 1:41 PM
Rick Hickey said:
The Californians for Population Stabilization took the Bear-Stearns numbers and used the official Border Patrol #'s and then used a former head State Economist for CA. and came up with 22-35 Million here Illegally. That 12 million # is mostly from Pew from 3 years ago, even at only 1 Million per year that number should be at least 15 Million by now
April 10, 2008 2:00 PM
frank l kinney said:
we lose gain nothing from illegal immigration. texas, arizona, california, new york, illinois, the cost is unbelievable!!! the cost is the american economy? three amigo's whish to give what" 35 million amnesty? enforce clear act of 07 which cuts off federal funds to so called sanctuary citys would be nice? san francisco's gavin newsom, obama's illinois! hillary bloomberg new york! enforcement we just don't see" what we do see is protection from enforcement from states and goverment!!! mcCain kyl arizona with open borders? gov. new mexico's billy richardson giving driver license out over four years? american victims from crime does not bother anyone in washington? texas, D- mouth jackson, R- lamar smith, R- hutchison, R-ron paul? hutch stops fence? lamar smith wants triple visas? D we all know where they stand, like the 14 to stop the fence protectionist!!! all tell us they want are votes period " what we get in return is what they all have on their agenda now" lobbyist running there campaigns lobbyist? corporate lobbyist and their best interest? third world country we get !!! look how they protect our safety in planes? look at refugees with TB leprosy syphilis in arkansas tyson foods plant" thats wonderful news!! refugees let into our country not even screened for disease? secure border is the only thing that will show any sense yet this they try to stop!!! how can any american citizen not see the reality of the amigo three? support this kind of neglect and security from the three amigo's dumb!!!! thrid party candidate? ron paul putting togeather a libertarian candidate? whats that someone who is not a full liberal? constitution party.com as a few good candidates! oh we need a change big time!!! but a person that can deal with all the issues and put our country back in order! system! values! schools! immigration! imports! security! jobs! wages! health care and protection from it thats for sure!!! china made blood thinner kills murders 103 american citizens? does not even make news? walmart china supplied health clinics future?h-1 b h-2 b foreign visas for foreign nurses and doctors? visas for foreign tech workers? we are getting nailed from everywhere and are getting nowhere, but foreclosers? won't even give help to americans here either? hell they set it up? they get bailed out? when one really sees reality and what this goverment is doing us all" what TIMBER!!! 2ND GRADE READING" GAY READING! obama iran lets talk? iran talk to a gay prayer type guy? ugly ugly nothing but ugly? 6 years of this kind of ugly in michigan!!! look at what all america is getting NOW? if anything i tryed to tell it! i'am know quiz kid and do not try to be one either" but i sure know a dirty rat when i see him! trouble is thats all we ever see don't you think? independent. read lou dobbs book, one will see just a little more clearly. spirit michigan little big horn AMEN.
April 10, 2008 2:51 PM
William Garland said:
Another source of information on the number of illegal aliens is Immigrationcounters.com which places the nunmber at over 21 million and provides a rationale for how it arrived at that number.
April 10, 2008 6:42 PM
Doroteo arango said:

To all that are cry baby's, there is nothing that will stop the Latin population from growing in the united states, Obama will be another president that comes from a immigrant family too just like every other race,white,black,hispanic,asians that came to this beautiful country! All races have always fought to be free in this country and it’s only fair to do so. my question to all you idiots that are trying to solve a migration(invasion) problem that started since CHRISTOPHER COLOMBUS, what is more illegal, crossing the entire ocean and landing on the united states illegally or crossing a river and walking into the united states illegally? Every person that has lived in this country (except American & Mexican Indians) at one point crossed the ocean; the Rio Bravo River, desert, and mountains to get here so go back and learn American history. Hope you can answer my question.

April 13, 2008 12:18 AM
Doroteo Arango said:
The Fence, what a joke, tax payer money wasted, just like the billions that are being spent in Iraq and all the brave men that have given their lives for America, whithin these brave men there are Illigals from mexico too. I think that when they are under fire, no one is asking what is your statues back in America. We are all immigrants!!
April 13, 2008 12:36 AM
Adelaida Ochoa said:
I Agree with you we don't come here to take your job away all we want is to have a better life for our family that doesn't hurt anybody.....
April 17, 2008 5:59 PM
Elena said:
Dear Adelaida, Yes you certainly are taking our jobs ,first in the fields then its going for a better job (which is understandable). MY husband who was born here 5th generation does not have a job or works for lower wages. The ONLY PEOPLE WHO BENEFIT having THE ILLEGALS ARE ....OUR... OH say BUSH,CHENEY BIG BUSINESS....DEW DEW to the ENTIRE REST OF THE USA
May 6, 2008 3:38 PM
rhonda said:
Our economy is going to the dogs. "Illegals are good for our economy" the exploiters who hire them lie and say. Not only do they take our jobs (I know more Americans who earn less than minimum wage these days than the number of illegals who do, but we Americans all pay taxes, because employers have loopholes and can get away with underpaying us), illegals pay no taxes, steal our health care we can't afford to pay for (though we pay the taxes for it), and then we're "reminded" how great our economy is. GREAT? Prices are going up exponentially, taxes are going up exponentially, salaries are dropping below minimum wage, and Mexicans have huge amounts of money. My Mexican neighbors (illegals) all have nice, shiny new vehicles, $250 toys for EACH of their kids, and are always buying something big, like a large screen TV. They all have nice new 50" TVs, while I have a 30-year-old falling apart thing that won't work next year. Adelaida, when you come here to make a "better life," pay for your OWN emergency room visits and your own kids' educations. You ARE hurting us when you steal our tax dollars for your FREE health care or to educate your kids. And don't go on welfare. It's not a handout. It's supposed to temporarily help Americans. The day we can go to Mexico and get welfare before Mexican citizens is the day you can come here and get it before Americans can...with my blessing.
May 10, 2008 2:11 AM

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